pred<-predict(year_gam, type = "terms", se = TRUE)
I<-order(nottem_year)
plusCI<-I(pred$fit[,1] + 1.96*pred$se[,1])
minusCI<-I(pred$fit[,1] - 1.96*pred$se[,1])
xx <- c(nottem_year[I],rev(nottem_year[I]))
yy <- c(plusCI[I],rev(minusCI[I]))
plot(xx,yy,type="n",cex.axis=1.2)
polygon(xx,yy,col="light grey",border="light grey")
lines(nottem_year[I], pred$fit[,1][I],lty=1)
abline(h=0)